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Current Fuel Prices; January 2009.
Govt gets tough on oil strike, says no need to panic
06 Jan 2008;timesofindia.indiatimes.com;NEW DELHI: After executives of state-owned oil industry rejected all peace overtures, the government on Monday decided to take gloves off and reveal its iron fist against their planned strike from Wednesday, even as it assured consumers of uninterrupted supplies and appealed against panic buying of motor and kitchen fuels. The Centre asked states to invoke drastic laws meant for maintaining essential supplies. In places where such laws are not available, the National Security Act will be applied. Simultaneously, the oil companies are moving contempt proceedings as the strike has been called despite the Delhi High Court's stay. They are also rotating personnel not under the strike call to man key posts. Despite the tough measures, oil minister Murli Deora hoped the government will not have to use them. "I appeal them against striking work. This is not the time. It will hurt the economy and people. The PM has set up a mechanism for redressal. But still if they stick to their guns, they will have to face the music.'' In the same vein, petroleum secretary R S Pandey too said, "I believe in the goodness of basic human nature''. A strike seems certain at this point as the agitating officers rejected even an offer to explain their grievances against new salaries to a ministerial panel under home minister P Chidambaram. Pandey had succeeded in persuading Chidambaram to let the association office-bearers themselves explain their grouse. The committee was set up after Deora personally took up the issue with the PM. The strike, if it happens, will not affect the marketplace for 3-4 days if there is no panic buying. One, Hindustan Petroleum officers are not joining and GAIL and Oil India executives have assured they will not hamper operations. Private refiners Reliance Industries and Essar have also been put on notice to supply fuels if need be. "There is no shortage of products. We have 30 days' supplies in stock. The important thing is loading them into truck- and rail-tankers or push through pipelines. For a few days, there will be no affect. But if the strike goes on for long, then we need to see the how the situation works out,'' IndianOil chairman Sarthak Behuria said. On its part, Oil Sector Officers Association (OSOA), representing 45,000 oil PSU executives, tried to rope in pump owners. Ajay Bansal of the pump owners' federation said they sympathise with the oil executives and will "lend support'' if need be.
05 Jan 2009;economictimes.indiatimes.com:Rajeev Jayaswal:NEW DELHI: The government is working on a bailout package to prevent its three blue chip oil companies ”Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum" from closing 2008-09 in the red. The package, which is currently being worked out between the finance and petroleum ministries, proposes to provide additional oil bonds of Rs 30,000 crore to the oilcos to compensate them for losses incurred on fuel sales at government-controlled prices, a government official in the know said. According to the proposal, the government may issue bonds worth Rs 30,000-31,000 crore in the current fiscal that will absorb the OMCs entire loss including their earlier contribution of Rs 21,957 crore in the first half (H1) towards fuel subsidy. Upstream companies Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) share may also be restricted to Rs 30,000 crore, most of which was already paid in H1. The total subsidy for 2008-09 is estimated at around Rs 1,06,000 crore. A proposal of the oil ministry to absolve the three public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) from sharing underrecoveries is under consideration, an official in the finance ministry, on conditions of anonymity said, It is unjustified to ask loss-making OMCs to share underrecoveries. The three OMCs have, for the first time, reported a combined loss of Rs 14,431 crore in the first half of 2008-09. Underecoveries are losses suffered by oil companies for selling fuel at government controlled prices that do not cover costs. If the proposal is accepted, the government may have to issue additional oil bonds of worth Rs 30,000 in 2008-09. It has already sanctioned about Rs 45,000-crore oil bonds in H1. The government gives oil bonds to the state-run OMCs to partly compensate their losses for keeping retail prices of four fuels below market rates. The compensation was based on a burden sharing formula approved by the Cabinet on October 11, 2007 while extending fuel subsidy schemes up to April 1, 2010. According to the formula, 42.7% of OMCs total underrecoveries was to be borne by the government in the form of oil bonds and one-third of the total underrecoveries was to be shared by upstream companies. Due to an unprecedented jump in crude oil prices, the formula was later abandoned. The crude oil prices had peaked at $147 a barrel in mid-July 2008. Currently, global crude oil prices are hovering between $40 and $45 a barrel. The average price of the country crude oil imports (the Indian basket) has been $40.82 a barrel in December which was about $10 a barrel lower than the November average. The average crude oil import price in the first three quarters was $96.51 a barrel compared to $79.25 a barrel in the same period the previous year.
05 Jan 2009;timesofindia.indiatimes.com:Sanjay Dutta:NEW DELHI: Here's a bit of sunshine amid the forecast of economic recession continuing in 2009. You can expect fuel prices to become cheaper by Rs
10 a litre or so of petrol and remain that way through the year if the peak winter trend in the international oil market is anything to go by. Polltime political compulsions of brushing up a people-friendly image will make sure the government utilises the window of opportunity provided by oil's continued low run.
Broadly, present petrol and diesel prices are in tune with $55-60 a barrel crude level. By all indications, crude is unlikely to sustain that level this year. The forecasts range between $30 a barrel by Goldman Sachs to $43 by JP Morgan, at least in the first three months. The outlook is unlikely to change drastically in the remaining months as demand forecasts, such as the one by Deutsche Bank, too project more than a 1% decline.
The short $2 surge in the last few days, on the back of the flare-up in West Asia and Russia stoking gas shortage fears after it shut supplies to Ukraine, is temporary.
That leaves the government plenty of room to lower pump prices of at least motor fuels. Kerosene and cooking gas, however, are another story. Despite the low international crude and petro products prices, the lopsided subsidy mechanism still leaves state-run oilmarketers with a loss on these two products. The oilmarketers are earning a profit of roughly Rs 15 a litre on petrol and Rs 3 on diesel but lose Rs 17 on a litre of kerosene and Rs 148 per cooking gas refill.
No wonder, the government is reworking its arithmetic and working out another round of price cut for motor fuels -- and possibly cooking gas -- without hurting the oilmarketers too much. Last week, oil minister Murli Deora told TOI the cut could be expected later this month. Though the jury is still out, that cut could be of the order of Rs 5 a litre of petrol, Rs 1-2 of diesel and maybe Rs 20 per cylinder of cooking gas.
There may be further reductions down the road as it now looks certain that oil's heady days are over -- at least in the near future. Oil has stumped Opec's sharpest-ever production cut and failed to get excited by geopolitical events. If taken as a full-year average, crude prices have dropped 54% in 2008 from $96 a barrel to a tad above $44 on December 31. In between, of course, it created history by spiking to a little over $147 on July 11.
If anything, crude will stabilise at a level that will make a reduction in pump prices comfortable for all stakeholders. Many industry watchers say a floor will take time in coming until the market sees demand getting destroyed in a sustained fashion. At that point, prices could first level off in the upper $20-30 a barrel range before beginning to push back toward $50 in the third quarter or so.
